Oscars Prediction 2019 : Who Should Win, Who Will Win ?

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Scott Feinberg/Hollywood Reporter
These projections reflect Scott Feinberg’s personal impressions (from screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

GLOSSARY The following abbreviations denote the film festival(s) at which a film has screened and/or will be screening: SUND=Sundance, SXSW=South by Southwest, TRIB=Tribeca, CANN=Cannes, VENI=Venice, TELL=Telluride, TIFF=Toronto, NYFF=New York, LOND=London and AFIF=AFI Fest.

Best Picture

FRONTRUNNERS
Roma (Netflix) VENI, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
A Star Is Born (Warner Bros.) VENI, TIFF
The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) VENI, TELL, NYFF
Black Panther (Disney)
Green Book (Universal) TIFF
First Man (Universal) VENI, TELL, TIFF
BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) CANN
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight) TELL, TIFF
Eighth Grade (A24) SUND, SXSW
A Quiet Place (Paramount) SXSW

MAJOR THREATS
Cold War (Amazon) CANN, TELL, TIFF, NYFF
If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna) TIFF, NYFF
Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)
Ben is Back (Roadside Attractions) TIFF

POSSIBILITIES
Hereditary (A24) SUND, SXSW
Leave No Trace (Bleecker Street) SUND, CANN
Widows (Fox) TIFF, LOND
22 July (Netflix) VENI, TIFF

STILL TO COME
Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features) AFIF
The Mule (Warner Bros.)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features) AFIF
Vice (Annapurna)

Best Director

FRONTRUNNERS
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

MAJOR THREATS
Damien Chazelle (First Man) — podcast
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) — podcast
Paul Greengrass (22 July)
Debra Granik (Leave No Trace)
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)

POSSIBILITIES
Jon M. Chu (Crazy Rich Asians)
Marielle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Ari Aster (Hereditary)
Peter Hedges (Ben is Back)
Steve McQueen (Widows)
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You)
Julian Schnabel (At Eternity’s Gate)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)
Mimi Leder (On the Basis of Sex)
Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
Adam McKay (Vice) — podcast
Josie Rourke (Mary Queen of Scots)

Best Actor

FRONTRUNNERS
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book) — podcast
Lucas Hedges (Ben is Back)
Ryan Gosling (First Man)
Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

MAJOR THREATS
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) — podcast
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy)
Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther) — podcast
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) — podcast
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) — podcast
John C. Reilly (The Sisters Brothers)

POSSIBILITIES
Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun)
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace)
John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
Stephan James (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)
Lakeith Stanfield (Sorry to Bother You)
Steve Coogan (Stan & Ollie)
John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Clint Eastwood (The Mule)

Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS
Glenn Close (The Wife) — podcast
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

MAJOR THREATS
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Kathryn Hahn (Private Life)
Toni Collette (Hereditary)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) — podcast
Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade)

POSSIBILITIES
KiKi Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Charlize Theron (Tully)
Keira Knightley (Colette) — podcast
Rosamund Pike (A Private War) — podcast
Carey Mulligan (Wildlife)
Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Kindergarten Teacher)
Emma Thompson (The Children Act)
Hilary Swank (What They Had)

STILL TO COME (alphabetical)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)
Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots) — podcast

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